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States’ Foreign Debt Service Jumps 26% to N455bn, Squeezing FAAC Allocations

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Nigeria’s 36 states paid a combined N455.38bn to service foreign loans in 2025, marking a 25.77 per cent increase from the N362.08bn recorded in 2024, according to Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and analysed by The PUNCH.

The N93.30bn year-on-year rise underscores growing fiscal pressure on subnational governments, as a larger share of their monthly FAAC inflows is now automatically deducted at source to meet external debt obligations.

Tighter Fiscal Space

Foreign debt service in the FAAC framework operates as a first-line charge, meaning deductions are made before states access their allocations. While this structure safeguards creditors and ensures repayment discipline, it also narrows states’ discretionary spending space—particularly in periods of revenue volatility.

The 2025 monthly pattern reflected a “step-down” structure rather than sharp fluctuations. Deductions stood at N40.09bn in January before easing to N39.10bn in February. The N39.10bn level persisted from March through July, suggesting predictable repayment schedules.

A second adjustment occurred in August, when total deductions declined to N36.14bn—a 7.56 per cent drop from July—and remained at that level through December.

This contrasts with 2024, when debt service figures swung sharply in the first quarter—rising from N9.88bn in January to N40.41bn in March—before stabilising in the latter part of the year.

Top 10 States Account for 69%

Debt servicing obligations remain highly concentrated. The top 10 states accounted for 68.57 per cent of total foreign debt deductions in 2025.

Lagos led with N92.80bn, representing 20.38 per cent of the national total and a 28.33 per cent increase from 2024.

Rivers followed at N48.58bn, more than doubling its 2024 figure with a 110.02 per cent jump.

Kaduna ranked third at N47.93bn, up 5.13 per cent year-on-year.

Ogun posted one of the sharpest increases, rising 110.22 per cent to N25.20bn.

Cross River recorded N21.01bn, up 22.86 per cent.

Other major contributors included Oyo (N20.17bn), Edo (N18.70bn), Bauchi (N16.85bn), Kano (N10.63bn), and Ebonyi (N10.37bn), with Ebonyi posting a 53.09 per cent rise.

Regional Breakdown

By geopolitical zone, the South-West carried the heaviest burden at N162.77bn, accounting for 35.74 per cent of total foreign debt service, largely driven by Lagos and Ogun.

The South-South followed with N100.37bn (22.04 per cent), buoyed by Rivers, Edo, Cross River, and Delta.

The North-West recorded N81.97bn (18.00 per cent), with Kaduna and Kano as key contributors.

The North-East accounted for N42.42bn (9.32 per cent), while the South-East posted N40.20bn (8.83 per cent). The North-Central had the lowest at N27.65bn (6.07 per cent).

Sustainability Concerns Mount

The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) warned that several states with heavy debt burdens rank lower in FAAC allocations, raising red flags over fiscal sustainability.

Economists caution that without stronger internally generated revenue (IGR), rising debt service obligations could crowd out spending on salaries, infrastructure, and social services.

Teslim Shitta-Bey, Director and Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria LLC, argued that borrowing should not be the default option. He advocated for longer-term debt instruments structured more like equity and called for the creation of a comprehensive national asset register to unlock value from dormant assets.

He also criticised the underutilisation of revenue bonds, urging states to prioritise them over general obligation bonds.

Similarly, macroeconomic analyst Dayo Adenubi emphasised the need to expand consumption to boost Value Added Tax receipts, strengthen property and transport-related tax enforcement, and reinforce the social contract to enhance compliance.

With debt service now absorbing a significant portion of subnational revenues, analysts say fiscal reforms and revenue diversification are becoming increasingly urgent for Nigeria’s states.

 

 

Source: Punch

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Business & Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Eases Marginally to 15.39% in August — NBS

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Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, from 15.43 per cent in July, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday.

The latest figure represents a 0.04 percentage-point decline month-on-month, indicating a slight moderation in the pace of increase in the general price level.

The NBS also reported a significant slowdown in the month-on-month inflation rate, which fell to 0.71 per cent in August, compared with 1.57 per cent in July. This represents a decline of 0.86 percentage points.

According to the statistics agency, the development means that the average prices of goods and services increased at a slower pace in August than they did in July.

Food inflation also recorded a substantial moderation, dropping to 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August 2026, compared with 25.30 per cent recorded in August 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined sharply to 1.02 per cent in August, from 5.56 per cent in July, representing a 4.55 percentage-point reduction.

The NBS attributed the moderation in food inflation largely to changes in the average prices of several food items, including palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon (egusi), fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey meat, among others.

At the state level, Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rate at 38.85 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 37.96 per cent and Bayelsa at 36.20 per cent.

The lowest year-on-year food inflation rates were recorded in Borno at -4.04 per cent, Jigawa at -0.23 per cent, and Kebbi at 3.47 per cent.

On a month-on-month basis, Katsina recorded the highest food inflation rate at 9.48 per cent, followed by Rivers at 8.86 per cent and Osun at 8.32 per cent.

Meanwhile, the slowest month-on-month food inflation rates were recorded in Taraba at -12.42 per cent, Borno at -12.15 per cent, and Bauchi at -8.88 per cent.

The latest NBS figures point to a broad moderation in the pace of price increases, particularly in the food sector, although inflation remains a major economic concern for households and businesses across the country.

 

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Nigeria Open for Business, Tinubu Assures Investors

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
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President Bola Tinubu has assured local and foreign investors that Nigeria remains open for business, saying his administration is working to create a more predictable, competitive and investment-friendly environment.

Tinubu spoke on Monday in Abuja at the 75th anniversary celebration of the Nigerian Bottling Company Limited (NBC), where he was represented by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume.

The President said the Federal Government was aware of the challenges facing businesses and was addressing them through economic reforms under the Renewed Hope Agenda.

“Our message to investors, both Nigerian and international, is clear: Nigeria is open for business, and we are working to make the business environment more predictable, more competitive and more supportive of investment,” he said.

He identified reliable electricity, infrastructure, clear regulations, efficient ports and logistics, access to foreign exchange and a business-friendly tax system as critical to attracting and retaining investments.

Tinubu said the administration’s economic reforms were aimed at building a more productive economy, reducing dependence on imports, expanding local manufacturing and creating more jobs.

He also welcomed the Coca-Cola System’s planned $1 billion investment in Nigeria over five years, describing it as a vote of confidence in the Nigerian economy.

The President said the government was interested not only in the amount of investment coming into the country but also in its impact on job creation, skills development, local sourcing, technology transfer and the growth of Nigerian businesses.

He urged investors to see Nigeria not merely as a large consumer market but as a production base from which they could serve African and global markets.

Tinubu also commended NBC for its continued investment in production capacity, including new production lines at Asejire in Oyo State and Challawa in Kano State.

He called for greater local content in manufacturing and urged businesses to develop Nigerian suppliers, train young people in technical skills and gradually replace imports with competitively produced Nigerian goods.

The President stressed that government alone could not transform the economy, urging the private sector to invest, innovate, take risks and create jobs.

He also highlighted the importance of human capital development, commending NBC’s Supply Chain Academy, which he said had trained more than 1,400 young people since its establishment in 1996.

Tinubu acknowledged the difficulties caused by the ongoing economic reforms but said Nigeria’s longstanding structural challenges could no longer be ignored.

He assured investors willing to make long-term commitments to Nigeria of the government’s support, particularly those prepared to manufacture locally, develop Nigerian talent, strengthen supply chains and contribute to host communities.

Earlier, the President congratulated NBC on its 75th anniversary, describing its growth from a Lagos-based company established in 1951 into a nationwide enterprise as an example of the opportunities available through long-term investment in Nigeria.

He said the Coca-Cola System generated an estimated $1 billion in value-added economic activity in Nigeria in 2024, supported more than 160,000 livelihoods and purchased about $601 million worth of goods and services from Nigerian suppliers.

Tinubu urged NBC and the Coca-Cola System to sustain their investments, deepen local supply networks and continue developing Nigerian talent as the country works towards a more productive and globally competitive economy.

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Dangote Refinery Targets Africa’s Largest Company Status by December 2026 — Dangote

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President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote
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President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has expressed confidence that Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE will emerge as the most viable and largest company in Africa by the end of December 2026.

Dangote made the declaration on Monday, September 14, 2026, at the trading floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in Lagos, where he delivered the opening address to formally launch the refinery’s Initial Public Offering (IPO).

The public offer comprises 4.1 billion new ordinary shares priced at ₦525 per share, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares valued at ₦5,250. The offer opened on September 14 and is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026, subject to the terms and conditions contained in the Prospectus.

The IPO is targeted at retail and institutional investors, as well as eligible investors across Africa and other parts of the world, as Dangote Refinery seeks to broaden ownership and deepen participation in Nigeria’s capital market.

Speaking at the event, Dangote urged Nigerians and other investors not to underestimate the potential of the refinery, saying the company was positioned for significant growth and value creation.

“Everything is in the hands of God, but by the end of this year, this is going to be the largest company in Africa, not in Nigeria,” Dangote said.

He described the IPO as an opportunity for investors to participate in the future growth of the refinery, urging prospective shareholders not to miss the opportunity.

According to him, the public offer is not primarily about raising funds for the Dangote Group, but about democratising wealth creation by giving ordinary Nigerians and other investors an opportunity to own a stake in one of Africa’s biggest industrial projects.

Dangote said the decision to open the refinery’s ownership to the public followed a long-standing commitment to ensure that the benefits of the project extend beyond a small group of investors.

He explained that the company waited until the refinery became operational, sustainable and sufficiently de-risked before taking the decision to invite the public to participate in its ownership.

“Today is not about listing a company but about listing a company for Nigerians, for Africa and for the black race,” he said, while inviting investors from across Africa, the Caribbean, Europe, America, China and other parts of the world to become shareholders.

Dangote also highlighted the potential benefits of the investment to Nigerians, particularly teachers, civil servants and parents with children studying abroad.

He said investors could potentially benefit from dollar-denominated dividends, which could provide some protection against the impact of naira depreciation on families with foreign currency obligations.

According to him, the opportunity could give parents with children abroad greater confidence in meeting future school-fee obligations even during periods of currency devaluation.

The Dangote Group president further disclosed that the group currently has about $46 billion worth of projects and investments in its pipeline, aimed at expanding its various businesses and achieving its Vision 2030 objectives.

He stressed that the IPO was therefore not driven by a need for additional capital to execute the group’s projects.

“If it is the question of raising money, I think we have raised more than what we need as a group to execute all our projects,” Dangote said.

The public offer is expected to raise approximately ₦2.15 trillion, potentially making it one of the largest equity offerings ever undertaken in Africa.

The proceeds, according to the company, will be deployed towards the refinery’s long-term growth plans, operational expansion, strategic investments and further value creation for shareholders and other stakeholders.

Dangote also disclosed that the group had previously conducted a private placement as part of its capital-raising strategy.

He said the original plan involved raising $2.5 billion, comprising a $1.5 billion IPO and a $1 billion private placement. According to him, the private placement attracted significant demand, leading the company to allocate and reallocate applications.

Dangote said the company ultimately returned applications worth about $1.2 billion after receiving strong demand during the process.

He explained that the funds raised through the private placement had already met the group’s immediate funding requirements, reinforcing his position that the current IPO is primarily aimed at expanding public ownership and allowing more people to share in the refinery’s future prosperity.

Meanwhile, Nigerian Exchange Group’s Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Temi Popoola, said the participation process had been designed to be accessible, transparent and technology-enabled.

Eligible investors can subscribe through approved distribution channels, including NGX Invest, designated commercial banks and authorised investment platforms, subject to the requirements contained in the Prospectus.

Dangote said the broader objective was to ensure that the economic benefits generated by the refinery are shared among a wider pool of investors, rather than being concentrated among a limited number of private shareholders.

The development marks a significant step in the evolution of the Dangote Refinery, which has become one of the most prominent industrial investments in Africa and a major component of Nigeria’s ambition to strengthen domestic refining capacity, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and expand its participation in the global energy market.

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