Nigeria’s 36 states paid a combined N455.38bn to service foreign loans in 2025, marking a 25.77 per cent increase from the N362.08bn recorded in 2024, according to Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and analysed by The PUNCH.
The N93.30bn year-on-year rise underscores growing fiscal pressure on subnational governments, as a larger share of their monthly FAAC inflows is now automatically deducted at source to meet external debt obligations.
Tighter Fiscal Space
Foreign debt service in the FAAC framework operates as a first-line charge, meaning deductions are made before states access their allocations. While this structure safeguards creditors and ensures repayment discipline, it also narrows states’ discretionary spending space—particularly in periods of revenue volatility.
The 2025 monthly pattern reflected a “step-down” structure rather than sharp fluctuations. Deductions stood at N40.09bn in January before easing to N39.10bn in February. The N39.10bn level persisted from March through July, suggesting predictable repayment schedules.
A second adjustment occurred in August, when total deductions declined to N36.14bn—a 7.56 per cent drop from July—and remained at that level through December.
This contrasts with 2024, when debt service figures swung sharply in the first quarter—rising from N9.88bn in January to N40.41bn in March—before stabilising in the latter part of the year.
Top 10 States Account for 69%
Debt servicing obligations remain highly concentrated. The top 10 states accounted for 68.57 per cent of total foreign debt deductions in 2025.
Lagos led with N92.80bn, representing 20.38 per cent of the national total and a 28.33 per cent increase from 2024.
Rivers followed at N48.58bn, more than doubling its 2024 figure with a 110.02 per cent jump.
Kaduna ranked third at N47.93bn, up 5.13 per cent year-on-year.
Ogun posted one of the sharpest increases, rising 110.22 per cent to N25.20bn.
Cross River recorded N21.01bn, up 22.86 per cent.
Other major contributors included Oyo (N20.17bn), Edo (N18.70bn), Bauchi (N16.85bn), Kano (N10.63bn), and Ebonyi (N10.37bn), with Ebonyi posting a 53.09 per cent rise.
Regional Breakdown
By geopolitical zone, the South-West carried the heaviest burden at N162.77bn, accounting for 35.74 per cent of total foreign debt service, largely driven by Lagos and Ogun.
The South-South followed with N100.37bn (22.04 per cent), buoyed by Rivers, Edo, Cross River, and Delta.
The North-West recorded N81.97bn (18.00 per cent), with Kaduna and Kano as key contributors.
The North-East accounted for N42.42bn (9.32 per cent), while the South-East posted N40.20bn (8.83 per cent). The North-Central had the lowest at N27.65bn (6.07 per cent).
Sustainability Concerns Mount
The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) warned that several states with heavy debt burdens rank lower in FAAC allocations, raising red flags over fiscal sustainability.
Economists caution that without stronger internally generated revenue (IGR), rising debt service obligations could crowd out spending on salaries, infrastructure, and social services.
Teslim Shitta-Bey, Director and Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria LLC, argued that borrowing should not be the default option. He advocated for longer-term debt instruments structured more like equity and called for the creation of a comprehensive national asset register to unlock value from dormant assets.
He also criticised the underutilisation of revenue bonds, urging states to prioritise them over general obligation bonds.
Similarly, macroeconomic analyst Dayo Adenubi emphasised the need to expand consumption to boost Value Added Tax receipts, strengthen property and transport-related tax enforcement, and reinforce the social contract to enhance compliance.
With debt service now absorbing a significant portion of subnational revenues, analysts say fiscal reforms and revenue diversification are becoming increasingly urgent for Nigeria’s states.
Source: Punch